GE2020: Prediction vs Results Score Card

I think some fundamental hypothetical mistakes:
- People's Voice & Reform Party have negative brand modifier in reality
- Some PAP candidates have lesser swing influence than I had expected
- Some Opposition candidates had swing influence when I did not accord them any

Otherwise, my hit rate would be a lot a lot higher.

But on the brightside, I gotten all the results correct, with exception of West Coast GRC - although I already mentioned that with the margin of error considered, TCB/PSP might not win. And so they lost by a small margin.

I also got a few tightly contest wards pretty correct, like how close it would be at East Coast GRC, as well as how Bukit Batok and Bukit Panjang is not gonna get as close as people like to imagine.

The biggest "catches" would be the super accurate prediction for Sengkang GRC's upset victory by the WP over the PAP and the strong mandate for the WP in Aljunied GRC.

And the Singapore General Elections 2020 is now over!

Full Version: http://commonbad.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/GE2020-Results.jpg

GE2020: My Prediction

I have made an educated guess of what the election results would be.
TL:DR summary:
- PAP to retain super majority with certain constituency winning extremely high percentage of the votes. 78 seats or 83.87% seats.

- PAP to lose Sengkang GRC to Worker's Party by 6% difference. WP to win 53% of votes.

- PSP's Tan Cheng Bock led team MAY win West Coast GRC, but barely. Likely to result in recounts and be the last result to be released on Friday night. My prediction is PSP to win by only 1% (by around only 1000 - 2000 vote difference)

- Close Fights (But PAP likely to win):
== Bukit Panjang SMC (Paul Tambyah)
== East Coast GRC (Nicole Seah led Worker's Party)
== Potong Pasir SMC (Jose Raymond)

Hope you may find this prediction logical/realistic and fun.

(thankfully, finished this before cooling off day)

Download Full Size Version Here: http://commonbad.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/GE2020-Prediction.jpg

Does Singapore has a racism problem?

Racism will forever exist. But many a times, it is not racism, its classism or tribalism.

Racism CAN be managed, if people can stop being butt hurt so easily by any "racially-charged" comment or joke. Instead, take it along our strides, and the "perpetrator" will get bored real fast. THEN that "racism" stops.

Most of the time, its just people being assholes. Nothing to do with race.

The same happened in the USA. People are confusing Racism and Classism. You cannot call USA a racist country, when they had only in recent history elected a Black President, and Kanye West managed to become a billionaire (just this year). Its not racism. Its something else.

If you formulate the question wrongly, you will be demanding a solution/answer to what is essentially a non-existent problem. What is worse, is that the proposed solution/answer might actually become a self-fulfilling prophecy, make the non-existent problem, exist (and unsolvable)

Do we have racial problem in Singapore? No.

Do we have intolerant problem in Singapore? Perhaps.

Do we have an education problem (to understand each other)? Absolutely.

GE2020: An Election that will decide the next chapter in the Singapore Story.

I feel strongly about politics, because I had been following geopolitics and US politics closely for the past decade.
The people who leads us, have an enormous impact on our lives, in ways you cannot imagine.
A slip of a tongue, or a poor strategic decision - we will be facing a power China hellbent to strangle us, or get ostracised by our big brother USA whom had been the backer of our peace and prosperity.
PAP is waning, albeit very gradually. The increasing number of candidates within the PAP ranks (my impression) that are from the military just shows how much PAP is struggling getting (or not picking) people of quality from outside of the civil service.
This is not a good sign.
No doubt our ministers worked very hard, but remember the time when you are in school, you also worked very hard - but how many of us top the class or the school? Hardwork is just one aspect.
Quality/talents are hard to come by, and even harder to recruit to serve the people in a largely thankless job (which is why we pay top dollars just to even out the pro and cons)
With a seemingly waning PAP, in a reason why, we need to prepare for the worst case scenario, by voting in high quality oppositions - or at least giving them a base to build their party into one that can attract candidates that would otherwise never enter politics (since they may not even want to join the PAP)
But not any opposition. Only those that worth voting for.
This IS the only time you have power to influence the macro view of Singapore. After the elections, we will have to live with the consequence of our votes. Thus I also dont like people to complain too much about the ruling party in between elections.
Vote now, live with your decision. We then should stand together united as one people, take the shit that would come after the elections as it is (increasing GST to 9%, increasing population to combat the recession from Covid19 to boost GDP, further push back in CPF withdrawal age, etc... voting opposition wont stop all these by the way, just live with it)
But remember, we are all Singaporean first. Vote for what you think would be the best outcome for Singapore in a new chapter in our Singapore story.

GE2020: The Bane of Progressivism

While I still hope people will vote WP in Sengkang GRC, I think people still need to be educated on the danger of american political leftism/progressives.
We should denounce any attempts at focusing on electing someone on their "political alignment", especially one that promotes electing "progressives".
Let me tell you who are the progressives in Singapore: SDP/CSJ. Lim Tean even. Reform Party. Kenneth J.
These are the progressives/left wing politics.
You want these people? Seriously?
In the USA, among the top 20 cities with the worst crimes (meaning most poorly run), 19 are democrat cities. Democrats are the left wing party / progressives.
Progressives are often poor taking care of everyone, and they often discriminate against people who do not share the same ideology.
All activism are progressives. This is why some people argue when I make noise about banning straws - and when they cant win, the slander me. Thats what progressives people tends to do. They cant take no for an answer.
Progressives also tends to virtue signal, and wants to appear to be on the moral/ethical high ground. They willing to destroy anything anything that stands in their way, dismantle existing systems as well as taking money from other people - as long as it is not their own. But eventually, progressives always begets more progressives and eventually, even the original progressives are seen to be too conservative - more and more people will get sidelined or sent to the proverbial concentration camps.
And what happens when progressives and leftists take power? They start abusing it, regardless how you feel. People getting left behind or ostracized are often just "collateral damage" for a greater good.
You know what lies at the tail end of the political spectrum, all the way to the left? Communism. Thats what progressives extremists are.
Look at Hong Kong today, this is what communism will do with absolute power.