GE2020: Prediction vs Results Score Card

I think some fundamental hypothetical mistakes:
- People's Voice & Reform Party have negative brand modifier in reality
- Some PAP candidates have lesser swing influence than I had expected
- Some Opposition candidates had swing influence when I did not accord them any

Otherwise, my hit rate would be a lot a lot higher.

But on the brightside, I gotten all the results correct, with exception of West Coast GRC - although I already mentioned that with the margin of error considered, TCB/PSP might not win. And so they lost by a small margin.

I also got a few tightly contest wards pretty correct, like how close it would be at East Coast GRC, as well as how Bukit Batok and Bukit Panjang is not gonna get as close as people like to imagine.

The biggest "catches" would be the super accurate prediction for Sengkang GRC's upset victory by the WP over the PAP and the strong mandate for the WP in Aljunied GRC.

And the Singapore General Elections 2020 is now over!

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GE2020: My Prediction

I have made an educated guess of what the election results would be.
TL:DR summary:
- PAP to retain super majority with certain constituency winning extremely high percentage of the votes. 78 seats or 83.87% seats.

- PAP to lose Sengkang GRC to Worker's Party by 6% difference. WP to win 53% of votes.

- PSP's Tan Cheng Bock led team MAY win West Coast GRC, but barely. Likely to result in recounts and be the last result to be released on Friday night. My prediction is PSP to win by only 1% (by around only 1000 - 2000 vote difference)

- Close Fights (But PAP likely to win):
== Bukit Panjang SMC (Paul Tambyah)
== East Coast GRC (Nicole Seah led Worker's Party)
== Potong Pasir SMC (Jose Raymond)

Hope you may find this prediction logical/realistic and fun.

(thankfully, finished this before cooling off day)

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Does Singapore has a racism problem?

Racism will forever exist. But many a times, it is not racism, its classism or tribalism.

Racism CAN be managed, if people can stop being butt hurt so easily by any "racially-charged" comment or joke. Instead, take it along our strides, and the "perpetrator" will get bored real fast. THEN that "racism" stops.

Most of the time, its just people being assholes. Nothing to do with race.

The same happened in the USA. People are confusing Racism and Classism. You cannot call USA a racist country, when they had only in recent history elected a Black President, and Kanye West managed to become a billionaire (just this year). Its not racism. Its something else.

If you formulate the question wrongly, you will be demanding a solution/answer to what is essentially a non-existent problem. What is worse, is that the proposed solution/answer might actually become a self-fulfilling prophecy, make the non-existent problem, exist (and unsolvable)

Do we have racial problem in Singapore? No.

Do we have intolerant problem in Singapore? Perhaps.

Do we have an education problem (to understand each other)? Absolutely.

GE2020: An Election that will decide the next chapter in the Singapore Story.

I feel strongly about politics, because I had been following geopolitics and US politics closely for the past decade.
The people who leads us, have an enormous impact on our lives, in ways you cannot imagine.
A slip of a tongue, or a poor strategic decision - we will be facing a power China hellbent to strangle us, or get ostracised by our big brother USA whom had been the backer of our peace and prosperity.
PAP is waning, albeit very gradually. The increasing number of candidates within the PAP ranks (my impression) that are from the military just shows how much PAP is struggling getting (or not picking) people of quality from outside of the civil service.
This is not a good sign.
No doubt our ministers worked very hard, but remember the time when you are in school, you also worked very hard - but how many of us top the class or the school? Hardwork is just one aspect.
Quality/talents are hard to come by, and even harder to recruit to serve the people in a largely thankless job (which is why we pay top dollars just to even out the pro and cons)
With a seemingly waning PAP, in a reason why, we need to prepare for the worst case scenario, by voting in high quality oppositions - or at least giving them a base to build their party into one that can attract candidates that would otherwise never enter politics (since they may not even want to join the PAP)
But not any opposition. Only those that worth voting for.
This IS the only time you have power to influence the macro view of Singapore. After the elections, we will have to live with the consequence of our votes. Thus I also dont like people to complain too much about the ruling party in between elections.
Vote now, live with your decision. We then should stand together united as one people, take the shit that would come after the elections as it is (increasing GST to 9%, increasing population to combat the recession from Covid19 to boost GDP, further push back in CPF withdrawal age, etc... voting opposition wont stop all these by the way, just live with it)
But remember, we are all Singaporean first. Vote for what you think would be the best outcome for Singapore in a new chapter in our Singapore story.

GE2020: The Bane of Progressivism

While I still hope people will vote WP in Sengkang GRC, I think people still need to be educated on the danger of american political leftism/progressives.
We should denounce any attempts at focusing on electing someone on their "political alignment", especially one that promotes electing "progressives".
Let me tell you who are the progressives in Singapore: SDP/CSJ. Lim Tean even. Reform Party. Kenneth J.
These are the progressives/left wing politics.
You want these people? Seriously?
In the USA, among the top 20 cities with the worst crimes (meaning most poorly run), 19 are democrat cities. Democrats are the left wing party / progressives.
Progressives are often poor taking care of everyone, and they often discriminate against people who do not share the same ideology.
All activism are progressives. This is why some people argue when I make noise about banning straws - and when they cant win, the slander me. Thats what progressives people tends to do. They cant take no for an answer.
Progressives also tends to virtue signal, and wants to appear to be on the moral/ethical high ground. They willing to destroy anything anything that stands in their way, dismantle existing systems as well as taking money from other people - as long as it is not their own. But eventually, progressives always begets more progressives and eventually, even the original progressives are seen to be too conservative - more and more people will get sidelined or sent to the proverbial concentration camps.
And what happens when progressives and leftists take power? They start abusing it, regardless how you feel. People getting left behind or ostracized are often just "collateral damage" for a greater good.
You know what lies at the tail end of the political spectrum, all the way to the left? Communism. Thats what progressives extremists are.
Look at Hong Kong today, this is what communism will do with absolute power.

Presidency of Reservations.

Its been a long time since I wrote anything here. And I really wish I can "not need" to write any more "complains" against the PAP. Keeping quiet through all the nonsense over the past 2 years, this one is really one that I cannot take it.

Halimah is President.

The problem however is not with her. The problem is how she is "elected".

It is virtually absolute in sentiments on the ground that the entire "reserved presidency" was created by the PAP to bar Tan Cheng Bock from running. From how they count Wee Kim Wee as the "first elected President" to how they raised the bar to half a billion in managed asset - it created an unassailable criteria that left virtually no Malays being able to qualify for, barring a small handful.

Across all the social media channels, almost no one is celebrating and no one is happy about this. This election had been easily 10 times more gloomy than SR Nathan running uncontested. A great number is calling this election "Kelong". How can the PAP "defend" with the sort of "dignity"and "righteousness" by saying that took a political risk to do they right thing?

Not even the Malays are happy that they are a recipient of an affirmative action that they were taught all their lives that we are better than Malaysia; that we are better than this - that the Malays do not need more than what they already getting - they have the pride to tell their Malaysian counterparts that they made it on their own. But no longer.

If this racial representation is so important, why do we not have the same rules for the Prime Minister's position? Why the insistent that Singapore is not ready for a Non-Chinese Prime Minister? Everyone knows we would choose Tharman over any of the candidates for the next Prime Minister.

Halimah, serving as the "Deputy Secretary General, Director of the Legal Services Department and Director of the Women's Development Secretariat, of NTUC", does not put her in charge of the finance of NTUC. How is she qualified to be the President when the main job is to manage the country's reserves?

What if there is a billion dollar MNC, creating a position call "Director of Jokes", whose job is a executive role of just entertaining everyone in the boardroom - then run for the Presidency - he/she would still be qualified!

What is the point of an elected Presidency when all the PAP want is just to place their own people on the seat? If that is really the case, then why not just scrap the entire Elected Presidency and just appoint anyone that's qualified. Seriously, Singaporeans don't really care; we are not "democratically starved" - we just want to be treated with dignity and respect - not all these condescending political moves that treats the people of Singapore like as if we are idiots. We do not care if its appointed or its elected, we just want qualified people on it.

The same as for the General Elections, we do not like the PAP's attitude, but we nevertheless elect the best candidates in our respective wards that we believe can bring our country forward. We are pragmatic and meritocrats ourselves, the people. But to pull this reserve presidential elections joke on us, just to bar a popular choice for President from running, man... PAP, you just gave up much more for too little. 因小失大。

The strategic mistake for this Presidential Election, the fumble, is the same nonsense the mars the legacy of LKY for all the stupid reasons given not to tear down the 38 Oxley Road; its the same missteps that caught us in the crosshair of China; its the same mistake that caught us out in the open when Philippines left us for dead when we tried to speak for them.

This 1 stupid move is going to cost PAP, and Singapore, greatly, in the near future. The people are not happy - it could very well spawn the birth of a new political party that would surpass even the Worker's Party. I do not know who this new party is - but I'm sure there will be Singaporeans, very qualified Singaporeans, that could not stomach things anymore.

We shall see.

GE2015 - The Election of the Whites

GE2015's result had been a shocker to many, not just the Opposition parties and supporters, but also a surprising result for the PAP voters and the PAP leadership.

Much was the hype for the Oppositions, especially Chee Soon Quan's return, Worker's Party's Fengshan SMC & East Coast GRC bid, and even SPP's Jeannette Chong-Aruldoss contest for Mountbatten SMC.

Worker's Party was looking to build inroads into becoming a credible Opposition force in Parliament, aiming to take East Coast GRC as well as the highly "dangerous" Feng Shan SMC. Chee Soon Quan stupidly take on Holland-Bukit Timah after his 15 years away from political elections (what is with his obsession over Holland-Bukit Timah?)

But as the sample count result came out, it was surprisingly "White" - almost all of them with a heavy inclination towards the PAP. Multiple wards have over 70% voted for the PAP. And as the night wears on, the sample count turns true, as PAP take down on electoral ward after another with spectacular victories. Taking at least two thirds of the votes for almost every ward, with the exception of the WP strongholds.

Punggol East SMC fell to the PAP, while Hougang SMC continues to hang on to become the longest Opposition held ward, overtaking Potong Pasir. Feng Shan SMC is won by the PAP with no drama, and so did East Coast GRC painted white without much of a "challenge". Finally Aljunied GRC is retained by the WP with the slightest of margins after a recount.

Opposition are at the loss of words over the stunning PAP victory that see a massive swing towards the PAP. Many theories and reasonings are provided by various leaders, as well as commentaries... For me, its basically lies with a simple fact: PAP did improve after GE2011.

Some people say, because LKY pass away, because SG50, because shows, because just NDP-ed. But seriously, would you really vote the PAP because "its SG50, so I gonna vote the PAP" or "I gonna vote the PAP, because I want to honor LKY". I really dun think its this "simple".

PAP made a lot of changes after GE2011. Prior to GE2011, PAP had almost totally neglected the fact that Singapore is a Nation. Singing to "Global City" during NDP isnt what Singaporeans expect. All policies that brought a massive foreign population increase as well as an overly stretched infrastructure led to a national swing towards the Oppositions. Many voted for the Opposition just to protest against the PAP. PAP realised this very possibility that they might actually really lose power someday in the future after their first GRC defeat, they decided to go back to the roots - care for the people.

The way way overdue Pioneer Generation Package is launched, inflow of foreign labour is much better controlled, various initiative to improve people-government conversation and feedback channel is launched (it might not be perfect, but its a huge improvement over what was previously......almost none). Flooding stopped; and huge funds are invested to rebuild and improve our transportation infrastructures.

And it is all these very noticable changes in PAP policies that swing the silent majority (the swing votes), back in favor of the PAP.

GE2015 is an election that, regardless which way the voters vote, its a good vote. Voting against the PAP would further push the PAP to work harder to regain back the confidence of the people - a show of people's power. But a vote for the PAP, also encourages the PAP that, the change in PAP's direction is a right one, and thus PAP would have the confidence to continue to build on that and shape themselves for the new post-LKY era.

The election results also proved my theory that, the default vote for Singaporeans will always going to be the PAP. My rallying and encouragement for people to vote for the Worker's Party remains the be the right decisions, as it is always an uphill battle for the Oppositions to gain any sort of foothold in the Singapore political landscape.

The people has spoken - PAP, do not fail us.