GE2025: My Prediction

I did my predictions for GE2020, and it was fun. I got 9 hits (within 2.5% margin of error) and 22 misses.

I learnt what I missed in term of my considerations, so here I am to try again.

Lets see how good is my prediction this time. 

Its based on the same "formula" as my previous year's way of prediction, except I added "debuffs" for certain parties.

Inflation is a problem in Singapore - but its not the real problem

Inflation is bad - that I agree.  

But you probably didnt see the inflation is global. All these money printing and flooding of money by every country during covid - need to be paid for. 

Increased money supply devalues currency - leading the price increase across the board.

This is also the reason why you SHOULD PAY ATTENTION to geopolitics, especially whatever happens in USA. Decisions in USA impacts entire world - which is why I am super interested in US politics. 

In Singapore, coffee went from maybe 0.80-1.00 before covid to now, 1.20-1.40 SGD. 

But in Batam, Indonesia (just next door), the coffee price actually doubled. 

In Johor Bahru, Malaysia - it went from 1.50 ringgit to now up to 2.80 ringgit. 

Even in London, a latte was 2.30 pounds before covid; it is now selling around 4-5 pounds.

This is why, election arguments over GST and inflations are stupid. The blame inflation on PAP is also ridiculous - when Singapore actually managed the inflationary pressures way way better than almost every country in the world. 

So then again, what should we be arguing in this election then??? 

The mark of the political parties actually knowing what they are talking about - is to see if they are focusing on increasing Singapore's competitiveness vs the world, ESPECIALLY whether they have any ideas on how to engage with USA and take advantage of the geopolitical change that is sweeping the world, due to Trump's trade war against China (as USA is trying to reset the global economic order as every country is gaming the system way too much - thus the global tariff to force everyone to the negotiating table) 

If the parties are just putting blame of the inflation on PAP and use THAT ALONE as a reason to vote against PAP - then you are getting hoodwinked.

These Singapore Election's GST arguments is irritating me

REALITY: Have you calculated how much GST you pay after deducting all the GST related rebates?

You can do the maths yourself:

If you make and spend all of your 40000 SGD/year (living 4 room), 9% GST = 3600 SGD paid in GST

Total GST rebate money: 2100 SGD given you back.

You effectively only paid 1500 SGD  of GST, around just 125 SGD/mth.

If you are old (65years old) and poorer, living in 3 room, spending 24000 SGD/year, 9% GST = 2160 SGD paid in GST

Total GST rebate money: 3950 SGD given back to you. 

You actually made a profit of 1760 SGD on GST

https://chatgpt.com/.../680f5960-dffc-8011-b6cc-d552041ced48

You have to understand how Singapore's GST system works. Its not just "take money" nia; basically the poorer singaporeans dont pay GST at all, in fact, money is taken from the rich and given to the poor. 

On top of that, if a person is a millionaire, spending 250k a year, he would have paid 22500 SGD in GST. the 2% increase is 5000 SGD of GST tax gained from 7% GST. 

Richer people spend collectively absolutely way more money than poorer Singaporeans combined. The richer, the more bigger the disparity and gap between the payments. 

Poorer earners like my mum, earning maybe around 1.4k a month at most, she is getting 4000 SGD back in GST related rebate, not counting the 4200 SGD for workfare income suppment. Which means she would be getting 8200 SGD. 

So, i urge you guys (Singapore voters) dont get confused by the Opposition talking points on GST. 

I personally have looked at this and did the maths years ago.... 

And these are based on older numbers. 2025 GST rebate amount will be higher

The only candidate I identify with in GE2025: Jeremy Tan

 Jeremy Tan is the only candidate so far in the entire election that I heard talking about the real problems Singapore is facing and is going to face.... 

And he is an independent running for Mountbatten SMC.

(admittedly, I didnt watch a lot of the rallies... as I get turned off real fast by rubbish talk...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGYFOiDGwz4

This guy good. I like.

PAP's squeaky clean, manicured branding is starting to become a handicap

The problem with today's PAP is that, no one can talk straight and wipe that stupid smile off their face which anyone with an eye can tell its just a "PR" smile.

PAP people need to stop focusing on the "image" and start returning to the roots of what made they so effective during LKY's era: actual substance, genuine concern/focus of Singapore's development and outright blunt honesty.

Today's PAP... feels plastic.

Every candidate feels very polished and squeaky clean.... but almost inhuman... Dont feel like real human beings even. Even Lawrence Wong himself sometimes (it was worse before he was PM, I felt).

People like Chan Chun Sing whom really is very normal Singaporean in normal speech, which I experience when I was in SISPEC and he came to recruit for Recce commanders for his Brigade; had to adapt to that squeaky clean imagery that handicaps the way how he talks - making him look unconvincing and even awkward- which despite his talent, lost him his potential prime ministership.

And honestly, Worker's Party is also starting to fall into this same trap.... of this very manicured imagery/branding.

Looking back at LKY's election rally in 1980, you can basically sense how much we had lost over the years, in term of the quality of leadership in politics.

I blame Lee Hsien Loong for his failure to effectively do leadership renewal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwzhT3pSpU0