GE2025: My Prediction

I did my predictions for GE2020, and it was fun. I got 9 hits (within 2.5% margin of error) and 22 misses.

I learnt what I missed in term of my considerations, so here I am to try again.

Lets see how good is my prediction this time. 

Its based on the same "formula" as my previous year's way of prediction, except I added "debuffs" for certain parties.

GE2020: Prediction vs Results Score Card

I think some fundamental hypothetical mistakes:
- People's Voice & Reform Party have negative brand modifier in reality
- Some PAP candidates have lesser swing influence than I had expected
- Some Opposition candidates had swing influence when I did not accord them any

Otherwise, my hit rate would be a lot a lot higher.

But on the brightside, I gotten all the results correct, with exception of West Coast GRC - although I already mentioned that with the margin of error considered, TCB/PSP might not win. And so they lost by a small margin.

I also got a few tightly contest wards pretty correct, like how close it would be at East Coast GRC, as well as how Bukit Batok and Bukit Panjang is not gonna get as close as people like to imagine.

The biggest "catches" would be the super accurate prediction for Sengkang GRC's upset victory by the WP over the PAP and the strong mandate for the WP in Aljunied GRC.

And the Singapore General Elections 2020 is now over!

Full Version: http://commonbad.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/GE2020-Results.jpg

GE2020: My Prediction

I have made an educated guess of what the election results would be.
TL:DR summary:
- PAP to retain super majority with certain constituency winning extremely high percentage of the votes. 78 seats or 83.87% seats.

- PAP to lose Sengkang GRC to Worker's Party by 6% difference. WP to win 53% of votes.

- PSP's Tan Cheng Bock led team MAY win West Coast GRC, but barely. Likely to result in recounts and be the last result to be released on Friday night. My prediction is PSP to win by only 1% (by around only 1000 - 2000 vote difference)

- Close Fights (But PAP likely to win):
== Bukit Panjang SMC (Paul Tambyah)
== East Coast GRC (Nicole Seah led Worker's Party)
== Potong Pasir SMC (Jose Raymond)

Hope you may find this prediction logical/realistic and fun.

(thankfully, finished this before cooling off day)

Download Full Size Version Here: http://commonbad.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/GE2020-Prediction.jpg